Hassan Nasrallah, ou l’oiseau de mauvais augure!

Sad is the day when an entire (so called) nation awaited with bated breath the speech of a self proclaimed divine protector in order to have a hint, or even an inclination as to whether this long awaited summer will be calm and prosperous, ... or not.

Hassouna (our self declared divine protector) a finalement mit les points sur les "I ".

According to him; we have to be grateful for the role the Syrian “despotic” regime has played throughout; not only the 15 years of war, but also the next 15 years of hegemony we Lebanese had to endure (at a price of many martyrs numbering in the tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands), for according to “our dear Divine protector” Lebanon would have ceased to exist if it wasn't for the goodness of the Syrian heart's regime with regards to its "sisterly state" (and still we have no border demarcation).

The only “true” (and legal, according to him) resistance is that of Hizbullah, and all the rest is nothing but puppets in the hand of the greater evil that is Netenyahu (thank God his family name does not end in a double OO and not a U; than Yahoo would also be a Zionist entity), Obama, KSA, Bahrain, France, England…and the rest of the world; save Pakistan, the Taliban, Iran ….. Bashar.

Even Mikati and Suleiman had their fare share of criticism.

Get out of Iraq and Afghanistan, he shouted whilst his hand was whipping the sweat off his forehead and trying to put back the few strains of rebellious hair which kept on creeping outside his turban. Syria (or to put it in his own words SOUYiYA) is a red line, do not attempt to stab it in the back .

According to our self proclaimed divine protector, the entire universe is wrong. Bashar is nothing short of St Rita, Ghandi, Mother Theresa, Mar Charbel, The prophet Mohammad, Hare Krishna, Tao, Winnie the poo…etc (all put together in order to create the most magnanimous entity ) and we should all rally behind him; for according to Hassouna what is taking place in SOUYIYA is all the doing of one Obama and one Netenyahu.

According to him the majority of the Syrian people are all for a living under oppression and those who died in their quest for freedom and dignity are nothing but a small percentage misguided by foreign "ill seeking" powers with their own devilish agendas (Lebanese devil worshipers included).

Hassouna, our Divine protector after having sweat profusely, promised us yet another more spectacular victory.
The only question that springs to my mind is : “at what cost?”

Wlek tfeh ya Hassan, go back to that same rock you crawled out of.

The only people who are still applauding your speeches are not Lebanese. And when Bashar will fall flat on his face (within time I admit) and gets shafted (with no Vaseline), the only recourse you and your "sheeple"will have, is to seek refuge in the land of “Wilayat Al Faqih”, but only if (and a big IF that is) then such a land and outdated notion still exists. Remember Neda, she is nothing but the beginning!

You are not welcome Mr Ahmadinejad !

Today we will witness a warm welcome to the devil incarnate (Ahmadinejad) and another black page will be added to Lebanon’s history.
To all of you who are still in the dark as to why many of us oppose such a visit, one reason could be the support it brings to our local devil, and why devil you might ask ?

Just a reminder:

I am a “Moukawem”.

Thank you Hassouna, for yet another enlightened/divine speech. Tonight your moderate tone finally convinced me of your righteousness. Yes you are our supreme leader; nazih and charif.
Mea culpa for having doubted your patriotic drive and the selfishness, no other local politician ever showed me (including those who lost their lives).
Your magnanimous words with regards to the families of those newly found spies, and how they should not be labeled and singled out (especially the “daughters”); made me not pay much attention to the fact that you called for their quick execution (if only I could post on youtube a British documentary that was made by NTV entertainment in 1995 about the savagery of executions and the death penalty which shows in its last couple of minutes how your party executed (without a trial) an alleged 3amil in front of his mother). Apart from your “relatively” calm tone of voice (and with no finger waving for a change) your female audience was showing hair. Could this be the dawn of a new “infitah” era? I must say I was impressed. More so (and not dwell in the pile of empty rhetoric and non founded justification to your divine message) when you suggested that the government should seek (after having agreed to the extensive shopping list for the LAF) during Dr. Ahmadinejad’s (the protector of all human rights) upcoming visit to Lebanon to extend its begging hand, and seek (the more than willing) Iranian’s help (of course with no strings attached, but only for the love it has for their brother Lebanese) in order to provide the LAF with the needed weapons, ie: missiles, armor piercing rockets…etc
Ya sayyed Hassan, why not at the same time, since the Iranians are so eager to help us (for free, and no strings attached) not ask for submarines, fighter planes and any other “offensive” weaponry they have in their arsenal.
In all fairness you did start, ya Hassouna, this segment of your speech by including all Arab countries and asking them to relinquish part of their military arsenal which is being stockpiled, and about to become obsolete; for better use in Lebanon (the only country who is on the frontline with our only and arch enemy Israel). I guess the answer to that is “Beggars can be choosers”.
But what really swayed me to your side, and made me wish I was a “moukawem”; was when you suggested that we should start investing in NUCLEAR power in order to resolve our electricity crisis (for peaceful purposes), just like Iran is doing. I especially appreciated the fact that you did say that you did not have exact figures, but… that it would be much cheaper than trying to resolve the crisis whilst relying on fossil fuel. Yes Hassouna, now is the time to tell the international community that this tiny country of ours (maybe yours) is about to follow on the footsteps of the country of your sponsors/masters, plagued by international sanctions. Yalla, why not. Ask Ahmedinajad to provide us with enriched uranium (for peaceful purposes that is) and the North Korean to help us build (for free) power plants. Why not, let us all together witness the effect of internationally imposed sanctions on 4.5 million people of whom the majority can hardly make ends meet (mainly those who are not sponsored by Iranian money).
Hassouna, you are a great man; for throughout your televised speech there was no mention of the deadly clashes that were taking place tonight in Beirut involving your men. Yes your cause is greater than to reflect on a few rockets that were fired amongst your people and your foes which caused people to reminisce about civil strife. It’s all good, and the “moukawameh” is greater than any individual.
Just like you said the rumors of indictments of unruly members of Hizbullah makes you laugh, for according to you those are only part of the followers and not “cadre” of you divine party. And to that I say: “How far will your jaw drop if Mughnieh is even mentioned in the STL probe”?. I guess Moughnieh was nothing more than a blind follower.

Hassouna, after your latest speech (and I don’t think I will bother with any future ones) I have decided to join the “Moukawameh”; not yours, but the true “moukawameh”; that with a sole purpose to kick your arse (and those who believe in you) out of my home. And my home is LEBANON.

The winds of change.

Chavez and Ahmadi Najad are in cahoots even with regards to exchanging nuclear technology know how.

Russian vessel (Arctic Sea) kidnapped, allegedly carrying weapons to Iran. Talk about the Mossad being involved, and a secret visit by Israeli high officials to Russia in order to contain the story.

Turkey FM cancels visit to Israel.

Iraq blames Syria for Iraq terror.

4000 new settlements given the go ahead to be built in Israel/the occupied territory.

And in my country the only talk on the news is about how constitutional the new cabinet proposal was.

Fuck me gently for I worry about those changes and I ask. Since when:

Was the constitution ever respected.

Was, any past present and even future government truly representative of the will and aspiration of the people.

Was Lebanon a master of its own destiny.

Democracy gives way to those who lost elections, and still DEMAND the lion's share.

When the people sit idle (for it is the tourist season) and accept a 70 day stalemate.

Ya Elias, where are the Migs that you so proudly procured as a gift from the Russians? If I recall correctly we were supposed to have them by no later than August (I guess the Syrians will get theirs first). No you are not the only one who fell short of your (public) promises, and you are not the only one who let down those million + who took the streets in 2005. Goatee Saad has stepped over his Christian allies in his government proposal. Walid Beik has lost his credibility amongst many of his partners and Druze followers. Aoun has dug himself deeper into the grave of shame (thanks to Gebran Imbecile). And my fellow Lebanese lost the most.

An election took place, and results were cast. An election took place under the flag of a democracy that is second to none in our corner of the woods, so why not act accordingly. Why not? the answer is simple. Hizbullah's arsenal.

So my fellow Lebanese, I would advise you to reminisce, and long for the time when you lived under the Syrian boot; for then you could still fight. The excuse in those days was, I was fighting against an outsider, an occupying force.

But for the very few of you, who still have LEBANON flowing in your blood; those hindering bastards are not Lebanese by heart, soul, conviction or even allegiance. To all of you who took to the streets in 2005 and then onwards, for once speak out your mind. Pluck every single hair out of Saad's goatee and Hassouna's beard, demand that the Iztaz gives back the keys to parliament, that the so called doctor plants cedar trees in Becharre and leaves us alone, that Walid Beik rides his Harley into some far away sunset, that Micho finds an asylum that can accommodate his many psychological illnesses.But most of all my fellow Lebanese; REPENT. Repent, for what ails this country of ours is from your own doing!

I support the green revolution!

Oppression is not everlasting, even within the most oppressive of regimes.

The green revolution emanated from a deep sentiment of discontent with the result of the Iranian elections; just like the Cedar revolution started with the assassination of Rafik al Hariri. In both cases, and without prior notice; people took to the streets and voiced their discontent. In March of 1979 Ayatollah Khomeini changed the face of Iran. Today, 30 years later, the people of Iran are attempting to say “enough is enough, now is the time for change”. Just like in Lebanon, after 30 years of Syrian hegemony, the people took to the streets and said: “enough is enough, now is the time for change”.
They have Mahmoud Ahmadinajad, and we have Hassan Nasrallah. They have NEDA SULTANI, and we have RAMZI IRANI. Their struggle is a couple of weeks old, and ours has been going on for over 4 years.
This is a call for all Lebanese, and especially those whose voice and opinions (and yes, this also concern you, you ORANGE pricks) muffled (under torture) for years; to support in any way you can, the cause of our brothers and sisters in Iran. Representatives of the (so called Cedar Revolution) have won the majority in the elections. Now is a golden opportunity for you (bunch of nitwits)to show Lebanese, Iranians, the world, and the independent Shia your refusal to “Dawlit Al Fakih”. Organize a PEACEFUL march in condemnation of Hizbullah’s masters who are UNLAWFULLY killing those who can make a change in Iran, hence maybe reducing some of your local evil’s influence and might.
Wlek, people of Lebanon react, embrace this newly born cry for freedom that is coming from one of the most defiant regimes we know today; for you are not alone in your corner of the world.


A grim reminder, to be watched with caution.

The day of reckoning is at hand!

A self inflicted slumber caused by great disgust and desperation, I had to seek shelter in music in order to appease my anger. I have become one with those I have long criticized and labeled LEBANESE (the silent majority); for I became silent for a while.
Granted the booby trapped cars have stopped (for now), we have a president (who turned out to be a jet setter), Geagea made his peace with those he inflicted pain upon and redeemed himself (as a new found Christian), the demented general visited Iran as an ambassador of true Christian tolerance (so his followers truly believe), goatee Saad met with the incarnation of evil and shook hands (forgetting about May 7th), our government rejoiced to the idea of the long awaited opening of the Syrian embassy on our SOVEREIGN land (still no word as to those rotting in Syrian jails), Riad Salame telling us that all is well in Lebanon (with regards to the world economical crisis, and many believed), ...etc.
Mea culpa, for once again I have indulged in self pity and the notion that “one hand alone cannot clap”.
Never too late they say, and I agree; for one hand alone can clap when slapped against one’s cheek. And this is my rude awakening.
To this silent majority I adhered to I say: “wake up from your coma; once again you have picked the short straw”. If ever you believed in the Cedar Revolution now is the time to rebel against those who are selling you and your country for electoral gains. Hold all 14th of March representatives accountable for their failed promises and the concessions they willingly gave to those whose vision is in contradiction of a free Lebanon (March 8).
Tattle tales you have been fed in the local news of reconciliations and better days to come; do you still believe in those false promises? Did any of you ask why :
*Sarko’s head is shoved up so far up Bashar’s arse?
*Syria is so keen on establishing its embassy before the local elections?
*Aoun visited Iran?
*Iran offered to help re-arm the Lebanese army?
*14th of March leaders haven’t met for a while a came up with a common press release?
*The electoral law fell short of ALL expectations?
*Belmar is taking his time?
*Syria is suddenly anxious to have a grip on border security?
*...etc
I am a simple man with simple aspirations, but I cannot help but fear the worst; for I have lived deceit and paid dearly.
Fucked we are, and always will be; for as long as we sit idle and watch. We are not deserving people; this holy land of ours was entrusted into our care, and we have failed. The day of reckoning is at hand!
TFEH !

Did we gain wisdom from our bloody past?

“He who is without a sin among you, let him cast the first stone”: John 8:1-11
Many were the slogans painted on concrete walls during the civil war, reminding Lebanese of their “patriotic” duties. And way too many were the speeches by all leaders which claimed to hold the interest of Lebanon at heart (in an attempt to rally more “foot soldiers”). Party flags redrawing the cedar tree fluttered everywhere with so called words of wisdom on them. And people followed blindly, like they are still doing today. All of the militias that I personally hold responsible for the death of all the Lebanese martyrs are still in power today and their leaders revered by many. Although throughout 15 years of unashamed, unpunished murder and ever changing allegiances; my people still follow blindly.
Never ever was a question raised (by a simple citizen, could this be because Lebanese are simple?) as to why none of the goals in their various doctrines was achieved. At one time (in the early days of the war) I thought that some dogmas were true and worth fighting for. I am today thankful that this state of euphoria did not last long.
My country is in turmoil once again, and like many I fear the worst. Most of the analysis and blogs I read (and yes I am biased) lead me to believe that the worst is yet to come. So if war erupts once again, who would the Lebanese follow this time? The Syrians are out (supposedly), the Iranians are in, the US and the West have once again changed their foreign policies (or have they)…etc.
Eureka! I came across the following, and not that I agree with it; I could not help but wonder in what percentage is this similar to what everybody I read is thinking of. So here it goes.
N.B: Before you burn me to the stake, remember that I do not agree with all the points in the following GOC (Guardian Of The Cedar) statement, nor am I a member; I just would like your feedback on some or all of the points stated below.
A. The Liberation of Lebanon from Foreign Forces:
1. The Syrian occupation, which is the foundation of all other occupations. Syria has a historic greed to make Lebanon the western province of greater Syria.
2. The occupation of the unfaithful Palestinians that destroyed Lebanon.
3. The uncivilized Iranian occupation that seeks the destruction of Lebanon's cultural identity and push it backward to the old ages.
4. Cutting down the number of foreigners in Lebanon after they have exceeded 50% of the total sum of Lebanon's population (internationally the average is 5%). Visas of entry must not be given without thorough checking and taking into consideration Lebanon's security and supreme interests.
5. Confiscating the Palestinian properties, companies and stock shares in Lebanon as a compensation for the Lebanese losses during the Palestinian wars on them.
B. Building A Modern State - Internal Affairs:
1. Declaring that Lebanon is Lebanese without any other quality whether it is Arabic or non-Arabic.
2. Declare Lebanon a secular country, eliminate sectarianism and open the door for all the qualified Lebanese to be part of government regardless of religion and sect.
3. Exclude all the traditional politicians from government and form a special juridical panel to try them with the charge of destroying the country.
4. A massive discharge of all the government employees who lived on bribery and corruption and open the door for new and specialized personnel.
5. Ban all political parties that imported their ideologies and political programs from outside Lebanon.
6. Abolish the law that entitles foreigners to buy and own land or property in Lebanon and produce a new decree that allows the government to retake the properties that were previously sold to foreigners.
7. Abolish the normalization law. The honor of the Lebanese nationality must only be given to the distinct and those who served Lebanon well.
8. Solve the case of the Lebanese newspaper's submission to foreign financing (almost all the papers were pro-Palestinian during the war).
9. Purify the juridical body and make it a truly independent authority. All Lebanese must be equal in front of the law.
10. Release a new electoral law that reflects the ambitions of the Lebanese and that opens the door for a wide participation in the electoral process.
11. Declare the Lebanese language as the official language of Lebanon.
12. Substitute the Arabic alphabet with the alphabet devised by the Lebanese philosopher Said Akl, who restored the letter to its Phoenician origins after liberating it from the defacement that was caused by the Arabic language. The Arabic language became very old and it does not respond to the rapid development in our age because it is abnormal to think in one language and write in another one. It is worthy to note that we have a superior command of the Arabic language and our decision to abandon it does not stem from an ignorance complex.
13. Finance the establishment of research centers in Lebanon to attract Lebanese intellectual brains both inside and outside Lebanon.
14. Organize and link the 12 million Lebanese expatriates to their homeland.
C. Social:
1. Demolish all shanty towns that surrounds the capital Beirut or the other big cities and ensure descent housing for those who receive minimum wages.
2. Ensure free education for all Lebanese and place all state hospitals under the supervision of the medical school at the Lebanese University.
3. Education should be free of charge for all the Lebanese from the elementary school up till the university and the Lebanese University must have branches in directorates.
4. Education must also be compulsory up till high school and those who fail must be fined.
5. Start an intensive program to eradicate illiteracy.
6. Replace the old educational curriculum (schools and universities) with new and developed ones.
D. Economic
1. Develop a new agricultural policy in the countryside.
2. Lighten the taxes on newly built factories provided that these factories are in rural areas as a procedure to decrease pollution in the cities and resolve the problem of population density in them.
3. Encourage the light industries at the level of the individuals and the families in order to raise the per capita income of the Lebanese individuals.
4. Plan a new tourist policy that would promote the cultural value of Lebanon through the ages.
5. Fight unemployment through cutting down the number of foreign hand in Lebanon.
E. Security
1. Build a strong army with a firm Lebanese national doctrine.
F. Foreign Affairs
1. Build normal relations with the international community and with neighboring countries that are firmly established on mutual respect and based on the Lebanese supreme interests. Reject any distinctive relationship under the slogans of fraternity or else that were used by the traditional politicians as a cover-up for their cowardice.
2. Sign a comprehensive peace treaty with the state of Israel. Lebanon has no interest in the hostilities with Israel, on the contrary, the relationship between the two was based on friendship and cooperation.
3. Withdraw Lebanon from the Arab League to eliminate the quality that designates Lebanon as an Arab country.
4. The party calls for an alliance between all the people of the Mediterranean sea (MPA, Mediterranean People Alliance).
5. It is normal for the Lebanese to look to the sea when seeking alliances because historically speaking, the sea was the playground of the Phoenicians and on its beaches they spread their culture.

Hizbollah, evil incarnate!

I will spare you a detailed account of what took place today for it is widely available on the internet, and most of you have been glued to your TV sets; therefore are in no need of a reminder.
A wide array of analysis and predictions were offered for you to pick whatever tickled your fancy.
Regardless of so called facts aired or written, no one can dispute the fact that Lebanon is being taken over by what was once praised as the Divine protector against the ultimate evil that is known as the state of Israel.
Many of times did I state that Hassounah and his thugs have one agenda and one only; that of imposing their own vision of Lebanon.
Can any of you, after today, still have a shadow of the doubt?


Roads are closed, tires are burnt, threats are made, people are held hostage at the airport, Iranians are flying in, new tents are being erected…etc.
And the army does nothing!
Michel Suleiman (and the other Micho who called for the toppling of the government today) say nothing.
M14 in their infinite wisdom (or shall I say lack of balls) praise the appeasing role of the army in such a volatile situation. Shots have been fired, B7 rockets were used, stones were hurled (even at army personnel), citizens were stranded, roads blocked (for no valid reason); and still our men in green watched.
Can you still seriously wonder why the Lebanese people are rushing to buy arms?
It is about time my fellow Lebanese to “call a spade a spade”, enough with the talk of one sect (and one only) that has been ignored by past governments, one area (the south) left to rot. Poverty is no stranger to the 18 (19 if we still recognize the Lebanese Jews) communities that are part of this nation of ours.
This very same community pretending to be marginalized, used and abused; is not only better off (thanks to foreign aid, “al mal al halal”) but has sold its Lebanese identity to foreign powers (Iran). This community by doing so has revoked its Lebanese identity, therefore its rights.
I, unlike others, will not hide behind my little finger and still claim that I am willing to negotiate with the likes of Hizbollah and those who follow them; for they have renounced their Lebanese identity.

I call upon my people to revolt and fight this cancerous cell even at the risk of having to amputate!

For those of you who might think it extreme I say : “bite me”.

Remebering Hizbollah; for those of you who chose to forget!

Hezbollah declared its existence on February 16, 1985 in "The Hizbollah Program".

This program was launched by Sheikh Ibrahim Al-Amin at the Ouzai mosque.
It stated (and I quote) " We are the sons of the Ummah - the Party Of God (Hizb Allah) The vanguard of which was made victorious by God in IRAN. There the vanguard succeeded to lay down the bases of a Muslim state which plays a central role in the world. We obey the orders of one leader, wise and just, that of our tutor and faqih who fulfills all the necessary conditions: Ruhollah Musawi Khomeini..."
The main objectives of the Hezb (according to their original manifesto) was:
1) To expel the Americans, French and their allies definitely from Lebanon putting an end to any colonialist entity on our land.
2) To submit the "Phalanges" (Kataeb) to a just power and bring them all to justice for the crimes they have perpetrated against Muslims and Christians.
3) To permit all the sons of our people to determine their future and to choose in all the liberty the form of government they desire. We call upon all of them to pick the option of Islamic government which, alone, is capable of guaranteeing justice and liberty for all. Only an Islamic regime can stop any further tentative attempts of imperialistic infiltration into our country.

In the manifesto the Hezb goes on saying that their friends are the oppressed people, those who combat their enemy, who have the same objective of destroying American hegemony, the Israeli occupation and "beating back all the Phalangist attempts to monopolize power and administration" (and yet Hassan claims that he never targeted the Lebanese. Maybe the Phalangist party and Sheikh Bashir were aliens from Mars; what do I know).
The manifesto goes on talking about the politics followed by the chiefs of political "Maronism" through the "Lebanese Front" and the "Lebanese Forces" which cannot guarantee peace and tranquility for the Christians of Lebanon, whereas it is predicated upon "3asabiyya", on confessional privileges and on the alliance with colonialism.

Their manifesto goes on by stating that the Christians should answer the appeal from heaven (their own of course, since Hassan is the divine one) and have recourse to reason. "We call upon you to embrace Islam, you'll find salvation and happiness upon earth and in the hereafter".

Granted the manifesto calls upon the Christians to lay down their arms and share government within an Islamic state.

The manifesto also rejects the USSR, US and the UNIFIL "as they were sent by world arrogance to occupy areas evacuated by Israel and serve for the latter as a buffer zone. They should be treated much like the Zionists".

As for the destruction of Israel the Hezb has since its institution claimed it as a goal.

There is more to this manifesto in view of education, health, just state, abolishing sectarianism, decentralization, women's rights...etc. All talk.

The hezb talks in his manifesto of a perfect (Islamic) society where the rule of law prevails and equality is the dish of the day (only for Muslims). If such is the case, I say to the Hezb:
1)Lebanon can never survive as separate entity from the rest of the world (and Iran is not the rest of the world).
2)Imposing your "divine" doctrine is no way of sharing power.
3)Pay your electrical bill.
4)Not one single country, nation or people can be exterminated.
5)The Phalangists ARE LEBANESE, and the Christians are here to stay as CHRISTIANS!
6)You do not have the monopoly on righteousness.
7)Jesus set foot in this Biblical land way before the Prophet Mohamed did (and never forget that).
8)Never, ever claim that you don't have enemies within (I am one, although not a phalangist activist nor from the Gemayel family).
9)Martyrdom is a concept we " True Lebanese" endured proudly way before the institution of your Hezb.
10)The south is mine, before it was ever yours; just like any centimeter of MY country's 10452 km2
11)At least I did not change the face of my country from one side of Beirut to the other (unallowed and unholy advertising billboards for example).
12)Before the war and your evil creation, if any Lebanese will cross the ring he would not feel the need to apply for an Iranian visa.

Ya Hezb do you really want me to go on?

Granted I cannot put all the blame on you. I blame this complacent government of ours (and those past) for not having revoked your license and allowed you to create your state within a state (just like your arch enemy the LF did during the war).
No you do not represent the Shia in Lebanon; you only represent those "oppressed" (and I doubt even that, a better word would be the less educated) who saw in you in a time of need the protector of the poor and the abused and the provider (with Iranian money). Well you are now the abuser.
Get back on your horse ya Hassan (or camel) and go chase windmills in Iran.

N.B: Hizbollah's track record (part of) as documented

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanon_Hostage_Crisis

food for thought

whilst visiting different sites and blogs I came accross the follwing nightmarish article.
Enjoy!

By pumping up the Lebanese crisis to explosion level, Tehran and Damascus steal Middle East interest away from Annapolis conference:

After Tehran and Damascus vetoed all six candidates for the presidency to succeed pro-Syrian Emil Lahoud on Nov. 24, candidates have been dropping by the wayside almost daily. The 79-year old former minister Michel Edde was the latest to be disqualified after he took instructions in Damascus for safeguarding Syrian interests in Lebanon.

DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources: Tehran and Damascus have joined hands to bring the Shiite Hizballah to the fore in Beirut and sabotage the Annapolis conference to demonstrate how Tehran & Co. is calling the shots in the Middle East - not Washington.

Our sources outline the worst-case scenario - failing a breakthrough in Beirut on an agreed president in the next 48 hours.

The outgoing pro-Syrian Emile Lahoud president will exit the Baabde palace Saturday, Nov. 24, and transfer his powers to the Lebanese chief of staff Gen. Michel Suleiman, who is considered moderately pro-Syrian and a Hizballah supporter.

The army will then rally behind the general rather than the pro-Western prime minister Fouad Siniora. This will leave Siniora with the option of calling on the backing of the Sunni militias led by majority leader Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt’s Druze forces and Samir Geagea’s Christian Phalangists. This bloc will find itself ranged against the bulk of the Lebanese army and Hizballah’s armed forces.

All the ingredients for turmoil and civil strife will then be in place, with the advantage held by the anti-West grouping in terms of numbers, training and weaponry, lavishly supplied by Syria and Iran.

President George W. Bush and every world leader he can rope in have been engaged in frenzied diplomacy in the last 24 hours to fend off this development. A conflagration in Lebanon would jeopardize the US administration’s policies not only there but also in relation to Iran, Syria and the Palestinians. The Washington-Annapolis meeting would become an empty charade.

Russian president Vladimir Putin in particular has lent his weight to Washington’s effort by applying to Bashar Assad and asking him to attend the meeting and work with the US to solve the crisis over the election of a Lebanese president. The Syrian president has not so far responded.

Nicolas Sarkozy also phoned Assad, the first time a French president communicated with the Syrian president in the two years since the Hariri assassination. He too drew no response. Many of France’s foreign policy eggs repose in the Lebanese basket and their loss leaves the relationship Sarkozy hoped to develop with Damascus and Tehran going nowhere.

Another caller to the presidential palace in Damascus was Italian prime minister Roman Prodi.

For Israel, the emergence of Gen. Suleiman as Lebanon’s strongman would add a serious setback to those Israel suffered in its 2006 Lebanon War with Hizballah. The UN peacekeeping force, which is required to cooperate with the Lebanese army, would be paralyzed and the last barrier removed for keeping Hizballah out of South Lebanon and at a distance from the Israeli border.

For the Lebanese Shiite terrorist group, Damascus and Tehran, this development would cap their strategic gains of last year.

Israel’s prime minister would be better occupied dealing with this new security crisis on its borders, Israeli security sources tell DEBKAfile, than posing with Mahmoud Abbas at a photo-op in America.

Arab League foreign ministers, called into session Thursday, Nov. 22 to decide on a delegation to the US-promoted Middle East conference, postponed their Cairo meeting to Friday, for another attempt to solve the Lebanese crisis. The lines between Arab capitals have been humming day and night.

The Middle East special envoy Tony Blair traveled to Riyadh Wednesday but failed to persuade the king to send a minister to Annapolis. The Saudi ambassador to Washington will therefore head his country’s delegation. Syria is not expected to attend.

Source: DEBKA file.